Young people who are registered to vote have turned out to vote at high rates in recent statewide elections. Census records show that in the 2020 presidential election, 88% of registered Arizonans ages 18-24 cast ballots. That was 327,000 voters, and the margin of victory was just 10,457 votes in the Arizona presidential election. 
In the 2018 midterms, 72% of Arizona 18- to 24-year-olds who were registered voted.  That was 217,000 voters, and the winning Arizona candidate for U.S. Senate won by approximately 60,000 votes.  
Yet since the 2020 election, few 18-year-olds in Arizona’s two largest counties have registered to vote. The Civics Center found that in Pima County just 9% of 18-year-old citizens* had registered to vote. Maricopa fared somewhat better with 14% of 18-year-old citizens registered to vote. The most recent voter file provided by Pima County was from August 2021, while Maricopa’s was from October, which may help explain the higher percentage in Maricopa. 

In Arizona’s two largest counties, fewer than 15% of 18-year-olds are registered to vote

Laura W. Brill

December 1, 2021

In the 2022 midterms, Arizona is among the states where young people, ages 18-29, could have an outsized influence on the outcome, according to CIRCLE’s Youth Electoral Significance Index (YESI). The index includes data on the youth population, state election laws, projected competitiveness, and other factors that can shape young voters’ participation. In our 2022 YESI rankings, both Arizona’s gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races rank #2.

In this analysis, we dig deeper into why Arizona ranks highly as a state where youth can have a decisive impact on election outcomes. Our data highlights:

  • Youth voter turnout has been on the rise in Arizona: It increased 16 percentage points (10% to 26%) from 2014 to 2018, and 18 points (33% to 51%) between 2016 and 2020.

  • A diverse young population—potentially harmed by voting laws: Nearly a third of young Arizonans are people of color, with Latinos and Indigenous youth poised to have high electoral impact, but also disproportionately affected by restrictive voting laws.

  • Youth vote choice critical in close elections: Young people in the state favored Joe Biden by a 31-point margin in 2020, a year in which the president won Arizona by less than half a percentage point and incumbent Senator Mark Kelly won by 2.4 points.

Youth of Color Are Key to 2022 Midterms in Arizona

June 21, 2022